National Energy System Operator adopts AI solar forecasting to save £30m and slash 300,000 tonnes of CO₂ every year
- Open Climate Fix’s AI-powered forecasting tool, Quartz Solar, is now embedded in the National Energy System Operator's daily operations, helping avoid an estimated £30 million in imbalance costs every year.
- Enhanced short-term accuracy reduces reliance on fossil-fuel peakers, cutting around 300,000 tonnes of CO₂ annually – the equivalent of 111 million litres of diesel or the electricity used by 62,000 homes.
- Quartz Solar has halved large errors, and is 2.8 times more accurate than previous solar generation forecasting tools used by NESO.
Open Climate Fix, the not-for-profit climate-tech organisation, has today announced that Quartz Solar, its AI-powered solar forecasting tool, is now live in the National Energy System Operator’s (NESO) control room. By delivering fast, accurate predictions of solar photovoltaic (PV) output, Quartz Solar is helping NESO manage the grid more efficiently – cutting both costs and carbon in the process.
Traditional forecasting methods rely on numerical weather predictions that update only every few hours, which often miss rapid shifts in cloud cover and solar output. Quartz Solar combines machine learning, live satellite imagery and weather data to generate forecasts up to days ahead, then refines them minute by minute, providing superior within-day performance for the Electricity National Control Room, 2.8 times more accurate than previous forecasting methods.
This leap in short-term accuracy allows NESO to respond more effectively to fluctuations in solar generation – reducing reliance on last-minute backup, often fossil-fuelled, while helping to avoid at least £30 million in imbalance costs each year and cutting around 300,000 tonnes of CO₂ emissions. That’s roughly the same carbon impact as 111 million litres of diesel or powering 62,000 UK homes.
Developed in collaboration with NESO’s Energy Forecasting team, Quartz Solar began as an innovation project, supported by NESO’s AI Centre for Excellence. Following extensive testing, it is now fully integrated into NESO’s operations – from day-ahead scheduling to real-time control. It was previously part of a portfolio of more than 95 active innovation projects, supported by NESO’s Innovation Team and funded through the Network Innovation Allowance (NIA), Network Innovation Competition (NIC) and Ofgem’s Strategic Innovation Fund (SIF).
This sets a critical precedent for the UK energy industry, demonstrating the commitment to use innovation to accelerate the transition to renewables, reducing costs and increasing efficiency.
Dan Travers, co-founder of Open Climate Fix, said:
“Seeing Quartz Solar go from concept to core infrastructure is a huge milestone for us – and for non-profit climate tech. It shows how open-science AI can deliver real-world results at scale, cutting emissions and saving money every single day.”
Carolina Tortora, Head of AI, Digitalisation and Innovation at NESO, said:
"Thanks to the success of our Network Innovation Allowance (NIA) project, Open Climate Fix and the National Energy System Operator developed a cutting-edge tool that can accurately predict solar generation up to 36 hours in advance—revolutionising our solar forecasts in the control room.”
Founded in 2019 by Jack Kelly (formerly of Google DeepMind) and Dan Travers (formerly of Origin Energy and SunGard), Open Climate Fix was created to bridge the gap between cutting-edge research and real-world energy systems. As a non-profit, it operates on open principles – sharing data and code to invite collaboration, maximise transparency, and accelerate impact across the sector.
Please direct all media enquiries to:
Emily Webster, Senior Manager, Marketing and Communications
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Email: emily@openclimatefix.org