Flexpectation: Demand Forecasting
Harnessing AI to help the UK predict demand
We’re developing a state-of-the-art, automated forecasting system powered by machine learning to support the UK’s National Grid Electricity Distribution (NGED). NGED is the largest Distribution System Operator in the UK, managing the electricity that keeps the lights on for over 15M customers.
As we transition to a cleaner, renewable energy system, sources of power are becoming smaller and increasingly distributed across the UK. Rooftop solar, electric vehicles and other forms of decentralised sources make it much more difficult for Distribution System Operators to predict electricity demand and ensure everyone's lights stay on.
Working with NGED, we are employing our industry knowledge and leading AI talent to approach this challenge with an innovative dual-track approach. This will enable us to combine cutting edge innovative research with an efficient, practical implementation of the new technology.
The project, aptly named Flexpectation, will result in a robust, operational API-based forecast providing probabilistic predictions for all of NGED’s 1161 primary substations up to 14 days ahead. With this, NGED will be able to manage grid constraints more effectively, activate demand side flexibility more precisely, reducing operational costs, and enhancing the UK’s network stability.
Live Service Track
In the first 12 months, we will deliver an operational service of our demand forecast for a pilot group of substations.
Research Track
Our experts will explore novel machine learning techniques to solve the complex problems that industry currently faces when forecasting demand.
Our Partners
By improving how we forecast demand and generation at a local level, Flexpectation can reduce unnecessary intervention and help ensure customers benefit from a system that is operated more intelligently as complexity increases."
James Mitchell, National Grid Energy Distributor
Energy Management Centre Engineer
The Flexpectation project perfectly blends innovation with real-world impact. Our research will establish a unique, first of its kind demand forecasting system, whilst the live operational track guarantees quick implementation to ensure the UK has a more efficient, predictable and affordable energy system."
Dr Jack Kelly, Open Climate Fix
Co-Founder
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